Asciential Property Insights
- Peter Ward
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
APRIL 2026
In this edition... Headlines -v- Fundamentals
Rates up, fuel up - But Impact on Property? No.
History Shows Growth Markets Can (and do) Outlast Ugly Economic News
What Actually Drives Property Growth: Jobs, Population, Supply and Affordability
Proptrack Home Price Index results - March 2025
Off the property track...most agricultural land, and deadliest weather events
From the Editor
This month’s media cycle has been very predictable: higher rates, higher fuel prices, and the usual dire warnings of trouble ahead.
But serious property analysis requires more than a headline. The markets that perform best are typically driven by jobs, population growth, limited supply, relative affordability, and where a city sits in its cycle. History also reminds us that genuine growth markets continue rising even through very uncomfortable economic conditions.
That does not mean every market will rise. It does mean that fear-based commentary is usually a poor substitute for understanding the actual drivers of growth.
This month's newsletter looks behind the sensational headlines to get to the truth about property.
Rates Up, Fuel Up - But Impact on Property? No.
The media loves a simple story: rates up, petrol up, trouble ahead...but property markets do not move on headlines alone. In fact, they are rarely impacted at all by headlines. See our second article below for evidence.
The Reserve Bank’s March decision acknowledged the inflation risk from higher fuel prices and global instability, but it also noted that the labour market remains relatively tight, housing activity and prices had grown strongly over the past year, and credit is still readily available. In other words, there are pressures in the system — but not evidence that the right growth markets suddenly stop being growth markets.
The same applies to fuel. Dearer petrol matters because it adds to household cost-of-living pressure. But that is very different from saying it automatically brings property markets undone. Housing outcomes are still driven far more by employment, population growth, supply, and relative affordability than by a scary weekly fuel headline.
For a more informed and measured view, see the:
History Shows Growth Markets Can (and do) Outlast Bad Economic News
The current economic climate is not a new pattern. During the brutal late-1980s / early-1990s "recession we had to have" when home loan interest rates reached a whopping 18.75%, Brisbane still recorded strong price growth.
A research article written by Professor Abelson of Macquarie University called "Housing Prices in Australia" provides long-run housing data that shows Brisbane’s median house price rising from $63,500 in 1987 to $96,000 in 1989, then to $113,000 in 1990, $120,000 in 1991 and $129,000 in 1992. That is hardly the picture of a market collapsing under high rates.
The same principle showed up again during the GFC. Melbourne had a brief wobble, but not for long. By the end of 2009, ABS data had Melbourne house prices up 19.7% year-on-year.
And then there was Covid. Brisbane was already in a genuine growth phase, and ABS data showed the June 2021 quarter produced the strongest quarterly residential property price growth on record nationally, with Brisbane recording its biggest quarterly rise since June 2007.
The lesson is simple: ugly economic conditions rarely impact a genuine growth cycle. The right city, in the right phase, with the right affordability story, can keep advancing regardless.
Read these for the longer view:
What Actually Drives Property Growth?
If you strip away the noise, the bigger story in Australia is still structural.
Population growth remains strong. Housing supply remains constrained. And when demand runs ahead of supply, prices and rents adjust.
The ABS says Australia’s population grew 1.6% in the year to September 2025, taking the population to 27.7 million. At the same time, dwelling approvals fell again in January. That is not a recipe for oversupply.
The Reserve Bank has also been clear that the real issue is the imbalance between new housing demand and new housing supply. That is why I continue to focus on affordability, supply, jobs, and where a city sits in its growth cycle — not the drama of the week.
That is also why markets such as Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne have remained resilient, and why readers should check our regular PropTrack link further down this newsletter for the latest house-price data.
Read these for the fundamentals:
PropTrack Home Price Index results - March 2026
Off the property track...
This month, from Visual Capitalist: